More Study

I'm taking time do serious study and analysis. I'll be getting to the analysis of my trades soon -- for now I am studying overall guidelines / principles. It seems that to become a good trader, you need to consider each trade a small "bet" and not hold to any preconceptions of what will actually happen. You expect to lose a certain small amount and set your stop and maximum loss BEFORE going into the trade. You place your best bet based on a setup, and move on, win or lose. The more you rely on things like hope, emotion, feelings of "it should to this", the more you will lose. You can't control the market, only your own (small) bets, and your own reaction to it. If you can cut off your losers quickly, you can survive even on a small % win ratio. It also helps to have a set of rules / indicators etc that are objective, not based on emotion or how you "feel". Most analysis / homework is done after the markets close, to keep objective. Some people I consider models are: John Carter, Bo Yoder, Linda Raschke. Good trading is non-emotional and should appear "boring".

AAPL - will it lead us lower?

I am still in study mode, but this Steve Jobs news is disconcerting. The thing about cancer is that while it can be in remission, once it comes back, health can deteriorate really quickly. Tonight there are articles that the rest of Steve Jobs' pancreas may need to be removed. That doesn't sound good. While the "skinny Steve" trade has been around for a while especially to those who follow trading sites, tommorow's morning paper may cause a lot of regular people to sell their AAPL in a panic. In the after hours today, AAPL was in the 70's, busting through the previous support level of about 80 to 85. Then again, the more I learn about the stock market, the less I try to predict us, hence the question mark in the title of this post. Time to get to bed so I can get up early to see the open.

Study & Review Mode

Well the end of 2008 came up too soon. It doesn't really feel like 2009 - more like the 13th month of 2008. Even more importantly, I haven't yet sat down to analyze what worked and what didn't in 2008. I also need to develop a strategy for 2009 and beyond, as others have done (e.g. see Market Monk's blog). I've put a hold on any trading (real or paper) until I analyze my past trades. I need to go back and see what worked and what didn't - analyzing individual trades as well as charting my own performance. It is going to be pretty depressing and not fun, but I need to do it. Apparently, many if not most traders do not review their trades and as the saying goes "those that do not learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them." So, while analyzing, I may not post for a while, but once I finish, I will have several big posts.