Goldman conspiracy theories/ talk won't die

More good stuff from zerohedge.com

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-selective-trading-disclosure-legal-way-preferred-clients-front-run-market#comments

Interesting indeed, and very depressing for the "retail" trader. I need to use thinkback to look at GOOG calls from last week before the conviction buy list got updated. I don't even know if regular people can access the conviction buy list at all, even *after* it comes out ;). Oh well. If this stuff is true it makes strategies that try to follow the "big boys" like the sizzle index and the options heat thermometer (at OptionsMonster) very prescient. Stay tuned.

Going for the Cash Bomb

OK I've been following Bo Yoder's recent "Cash Bomb" project and I've signed up for the initial alerts and video modules to support it. The idea is how to risk under a thousand dollars (e.g. $600) and double your money (or more) to achieve a decently capitalized account --- an account that you can then trade using more traditional risk management rules (e.g. 2% loss maximum per trader). We'll see how it goes.

Here is the link: CashBomb Sequence

Zerohedge.com - Conspiracy Theories with Meat Behind Them

I like reading ZeroHedge.com - it seems to be a credible site exposing market manipulation. Unlike other such sites it appears to be written by an heavy hitting anonymous insider. The site recently transitioned from blog to full-fledged site with forums. In the forums, I found a plausible account of how this fake rally may have come about:

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/how-hank-and-ben-initially-rigged-market-rally

As individual traders, we don't have access to the kinds of inside information that would allow incredible guaranteed gains, but we do have access to volume information and price action, which don't lie. Well at least as long as there aren't too many "Dark Pools"!

A good example of the telling power of volume and price is in AIG this week. Some big players piled into this stock for some heavy hitting upside. It also makes me think of making more use of the Najarian brothers strategy, when they look for unusual call or put volume -- these kinds of things reveal the tracks of the "smart money", sort of reverse engineering what the big movers and the "people who know something" are doing.

Still Papertrading

I am still papertrading. I think this whole rally since the lows of March is fake. The liquidity that the government pumped into Banks is being used to buy equities, so that banks can run up their own (now diluted) bank stocks. The media is in a frenzy about 'the recovery' - meanwhile everyday people like myself continue to struggle - they can't get a mortgage refi or modication, only those who have a clunker that meets the requirements can take advantage of "cash for clunkers" --argghgh. My neighbour had a vehicle to trade in and took advantage - and his property tax is next to nothing due to the flawed Prop 13.. arhgghg. Bottom line - sooner or later reality will set in, since the American Consumer is 70% of the economy.

I do intend to get back into trading heavily soon - I think the current environment with (surprisingly) low volatility is good for swing trading - finally. On Aug 15 I will be taking a local all-day options class from TOS (Think or Swim). Since no one is going to bail me out, I need to take control of my own future and nail this stock trading thing..

Bought some QQQQ puts

Well I sold my QQQQ and bought some QQQQ puts today:
20 x 17-JUL-09 QQQQ 37 strike PUT, stop when QQQQ >= 37 (Paper Money Account)
1 x 17-JUL-09 QQQQ 31 strike PUT, no stop -risk entire option (Real Money)

This is based on my theory that after a good quarter, the market will drop down again in early July. In my paper money account, which is well capitalized, I bought at the money puts. In my real money account, I bought the highest strike that I could afford ;) Needless to say, we'll see if this hunch pans out. Yes I still need to review my trades, however, I've been so fearful of the market lately, it is good to get back into the market. We shall see.

Searching for stock charting programs for the iPhone

I am looking into various ways to obtain live streaming stock charts on the iPhone. Unfortunately, iSwim, the iPhone app that my broker provides, does not have charting. If anyone has any information or suggestions, please post a comment or email me at momostocktrader "at" gmail.com.

Update: I was informed by TOS (Think Or Swim) that iSwim will be getting graphs in the next release. Looking forward to it!

Shelved the refi - Going back to Trading Soon

Well I found out the hard way that banks are being a PITA - those good rates area nearly impossible to get, even if you have good credit etc. For me I have 5.875 and was trying to get to 4.875 ... but it didn't work as rates have gone up and property values have gone down. We'll have to wait until the FOMC meeting with Ben next week to see what happens to mortgage rates in the future. For now, slowly getting back to following the market, reviewing my trades, and trading.

Update: Tried a refi a second time with Fremont Bank (http://www.fremontbank.com) They lead me to believe they could use my prior appraisal despite the new HVCC rules, but when push came to shove, they wanted to redo the appraisal. In addition, the fees for the Good Faith Estimate came back higher than discusses on the phone. Various agents I talked to told me things I wanted to hear like the application fee was relatively easily refundable. However it took me two weeks of calling and bugging management until I could get my $495 back. Caveat empor, and definately avoid them.