Monday, August 24, 2009

Goldman conspiracy theories/ talk won't die

More good stuff from zerohedge.com

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-selective-trading-disclosure-legal-way-preferred-clients-front-run-market#comments

Interesting indeed, and very depressing for the "retail" trader. I need to use thinkback to look at GOOG calls from last week before the conviction buy list got updated. I don't even know if regular people can access the conviction buy list at all, even *after* it comes out ;). Oh well. If this stuff is true it makes strategies that try to follow the "big boys" like the sizzle index and the options heat thermometer (at OptionsMonster) very prescient. Stay tuned.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Going for the Cash Bomb

OK I've been following Bo Yoder's recent "Cash Bomb" project and I've signed up for the initial alerts and video modules to support it. The idea is how to risk under a thousand dollars (e.g. $600) and double your money (or more) to achieve a decently capitalized account --- an account that you can then trade using more traditional risk management rules (e.g. 2% loss maximum per trader). We'll see how it goes.

Here is the link: CashBomb Sequence

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Zerohedge.com - Conspiracy Theories with Meat Behind Them

I like reading ZeroHedge.com - it seems to be a credible site exposing market manipulation. Unlike other such sites it appears to be written by an heavy hitting anonymous insider. The site recently transitioned from blog to full-fledged site with forums. In the forums, I found a plausible account of how this fake rally may have come about:

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/how-hank-and-ben-initially-rigged-market-rally

As individual traders, we don't have access to the kinds of inside information that would allow incredible guaranteed gains, but we do have access to volume information and price action, which don't lie. Well at least as long as there aren't too many "Dark Pools"!

A good example of the telling power of volume and price is in AIG this week. Some big players piled into this stock for some heavy hitting upside. It also makes me think of making more use of the Najarian brothers strategy, when they look for unusual call or put volume -- these kinds of things reveal the tracks of the "smart money", sort of reverse engineering what the big movers and the "people who know something" are doing.

Still Papertrading

I am still papertrading. I think this whole rally since the lows of March is fake. The liquidity that the government pumped into Banks is being used to buy equities, so that banks can run up their own (now diluted) bank stocks. The media is in a frenzy about 'the recovery' - meanwhile everyday people like myself continue to struggle - they can't get a mortgage refi or modication, only those who have a clunker that meets the requirements can take advantage of "cash for clunkers" --argghgh. My neighbour had a vehicle to trade in and took advantage - and his property tax is next to nothing due to the flawed Prop 13.. arhgghg. Bottom line - sooner or later reality will set in, since the American Consumer is 70% of the economy.

I do intend to get back into trading heavily soon - I think the current environment with (surprisingly) low volatility is good for swing trading - finally. On Aug 15 I will be taking a local all-day options class from TOS (Think or Swim). Since no one is going to bail me out, I need to take control of my own future and nail this stock trading thing..